The electricity certificate report provides an overview of all large projects under contstruction as well as expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decisions.

Key Points Fall 2016 Edition: 

  • Coal prices will remain muted due to significant spare capacity in the global coal market for another 10 years. A new investment cycle and higher coal prices is expected from around 2025

  • Without political intervention the el-certificate market is facing a likely price collapse. Will current investors be saved by a decision to move the goal to 2030? We present the effects of the regulators’ recommendations to the governments published on October 13th 2016

  • Technological development allows for larger wind turbines, and numerous developers applies to increase the height on already approved projects. Will increased energy yield push down the cost of wind power to ever low levels towards 2030? Will el-certificate prices continue to decline? We present expected price development in our new Nena equilibrium model

  • What is the actual status on wind power development in Sweden and Norway, and which projects will be built going forward? We present a complete updated overview

  • The el-certificate balance is becoming more important than for a long time. Are we facing a possible tight squeeze due to delaying investments such as the Fosen cluster?

  • The Swedish government is pushing hard to pave the way for a Photovoltaic boom. What is the real PV potential in Sweden, and how much will be built if the cost of solar panels continues to decline?

Report Content: 

  • A new comprehensive database with detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval

  • Complete overview of all large projects under construction as well as expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decision

  • Expected certificate price development under various scenarios: weather risk, technological and political risk

  • New quotas from 2018 and effects on the certificate balance

  • Merit order overview of investments from 2016 to 2020 (2030)

  • Complete monthly and annual balance from 2012 up to 2035 for all technologies, with according phase-out and accumulate balance development

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

-> Contact us if you have any questions!

-> Nordic Power Market Outlook 2017-2040 

-> Nena Energy Session, November 2 2016