The long term report offers scenario analyses with an updated “Base case scenario” as well as the “Nena scenario” (using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices).

Key Features Spring 2017 Edition: 

  • Persistent strong growth in renewable power and muted consumption growth will induce a Nordic production surplus until nuclear power are closed down beyond 2040

  • Uncertainty about the future of Swedish nuclear power has arisen as the investment decision about mid-life upgrade for Ringhals 3 and 4 has been postponed, with potential significant power price impact

  • North Connect linking Norway and Scotland could come into operation much sooner than previously expected, also potentially impacting power prices significantly

  • The utilization of the Nordic-German interconnectors seem to have somewhat stabilized, but no solution to the German north-south bottleneck are in sight. Significant export limitations from the Nordic market to Germany is expected to prevail at least until 2025

  • Consumption growth losing some momentum. Is the expected growth in consumption from data storages about to materialize soon?

  • Our base case scenario is updated with new information regarding several important price drivers

  • Our global gas- and coal markets analyses are updated and power price impacts presented in our special Nena scenario

Report Content: 

The long term report offers scenario analyses with an updated "Base case scenario" as well as the "Nena scenario" (using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices). 

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook 2017-2045 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2045.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

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