The long term report offers scenario analyses with an updated “Base case scenario” as well as the “Nena scenario” (using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices).

Key Features Fall 2016 Edition: 

  • Renewable power investments expected at a high level all the way to 2040 on ambitious renewable targets. The Nordic production surplus will continue to grow despite nuclear closures and increasing consumption

  • Export limitations from the Nordics to Germany continues with no solution in sight. The limitations pose substantial downside risk to Nordic power prices in wet years

  • Electricity consumption is increasing faster than in a decade, driven by households and services, but still below pre-financial crisis levels. We expect further growth to take place

  • Great potential for onshore wind power production with ever lower LRMCs is limiting the upside electricity price potential

  • We discuss effects of German lignite-, nuclear, and potentially hard coal phase out over the next decades

  • A complete repricing of the Global Gas markets from 2015/2016 have materialized. An update of the current Global LNG balance is presented and expected future developments discussed

  • Coal prices will remain muted due to significant spare capacity in the global coal market for another 10 years. A new investment cycle and higher coal prices is expected from around 2025

Report Content: 

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2040, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook 2017-2040 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2040.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

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